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Are We There Yet?
10/29/2004
This didn’t happen—or else it’s happening very slowly, at a glacial speed. The Web enables the building of large databases of content that might be used by a cluster of discipline courses. However, the creation of content databases to serve many courses is contrary to the publisher’s economic model of charging for content “by the course.”Over the last five years, however, there have been a number of national open content initiatives—the OpenCourseWare Initiative at MIT and the Merlot (www.merlot.org) community initiative, for instance—with the goal of making more content and often specific “learning objects” easily available on a global basis. But again, we see the economics of content access and availability influencing these developments. Databases require maintenance, support, and motivations/rewards for the faculty and developers who make their objects available.
With the first and second generation of Web-thinking, we often thought in terms of the Web making possible huge national and even international libraries, databases, and the like. However, the development of powerful, efficient search engines—and the ubiquity of the Web—means that content and databases can be globally stored and distributed. Another content variable links us back to the new learning research, pushing us into models of increasingly personalized and customized learning. These models argue for a high degree of flexibility in course content, beyond the core content. So, while the large content or large learning object databases are emerging, other forces and trends are making them less relevant than we originally thought.
4—About 60 percent of higher education institutions will have teaching and learning management software systems linked to their back-office administrative systems. This prediction is a good reason why pundits generally avoid specific numbers. Growth in institutions’ use of course management systems (CMS) slowed dramatically between 2002 and 2003, probably due to cost issues. CMS—as stand-alone applications could be purchased initially within college units’ budgets—suddenly became campuswide ERP/enterprise “mission-critical” applications. Understandably, many institutions responded by saying, “Whoa! Let’s think about this.”
What is surprising about this development? One is a cautionary reminder: Cost is an issue in innovation and transformations. Another surprise was the rapid deployment and acceptance of wireless communications, coming in under the radar via cell-phone technologies and services. Why is this important? This prediction about CMS needs to be refocused on the entire teaching and learning environments experienced by faculty and students. Over the next five to seven years, virtually all higher ed institutions will develop “comprehensive digital infrastructures” that mirror their current physical campus infrastructures. Virtually 100 percent of courses will be blended or hybrid courses, combining online/on-campus components and synchronous/ asynchronous experiences.
New Predictions
The next five to seven years will be a time of tremendous transformation, with new technologies creating more types of dialogues and learning experiences available anywhere and any time. (An example: one byproduct of the ubiquitous cell-phone-with-camera is a new way for creative students to peek over shoulders during exams, or surreptitiously pass notes.) Then too, as campuses are building virtual teaching and learning environments, each of us is building our own communications bubble as well. Have you designed yours?
Judith V. Boettcher (judith@designingforlearning.info) is an independent consultant specializing
in distance learning and the applications of new media.
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