Report: AI Will Reshape Work More than Replace It, but Global Impact Is Uneven
Generative AI will have a significant impact on labor markets worldwide, according to a joint report, Disruption without Dividend? How the Digital Divide and Task Differences Split GenAI's Global Impact, by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the World Bank.
The conclusion? Richer countries face greater exposure to AI-driven changes than developing countries, which are less exposed to AI but risk being left behind.
Another worrying finding is that a higher share of jobs held by women involves tasks that AI can perform, particularly in administrative roles and clerical work. The result is that AI could worsen gender inequalities in the workforce.
Paweł Gmyrek, Mariana Violla, and Hernan Winkler's 48-page report examines how Generative AI could affect labor markets globally, with particular attention to the uneven distribution of risks and opportunities among advanced and developing economies.
Six key findings from the report:
AI's impact is uneven across countries
Generative AI will affect jobs differently across income levels. Countries with more high-income earners are more vulnerable to machine-driven changes. In comparison, countries with less skilled workers do not face as great a threat from AI. However, they face the unique challenge of being left behind as AI widens the global digital divide, and not the converse.
Most jobs won't be replaced, but transformed
The report states that AI is more likely to augment tasks rather than fully automate jobs and render workers obsolete. Although the recent mass layoffs by the big tech companies say something else.
The major shift in the job market will bring many changes in how work is done, but it will not disappear entirely. The authors' finding is that the main effect of GenAI is task transformation, not mass unemployment.
Cognitive and white-collar jobs are most exposed
In the same way the PC boom caused a profound shift, moving us into the digital age, AI is on the same path, and it's those very jobs that are at risk. The report points out that jobs involving writing, analysis, and communication will be the most affected.
Artisanal vocations will be less affected as they require a degree of physicality that AI simply cannot provide.
Women's jobs are more exposed to AI
The author's findings shed light on the higher share of jobs held by women that involve tasks that AI can perform. These are mainly office-based occupations, which represent a disproportionate share of the "good" skilled jobs in these economies.
"This raises particular concerns, as such clerical positions have historically provided broad-based pathways to quality employment and facilitated women's entry into the workforce in today's advanced economies," the report stated.
The proliferation of AI in administrative roles and clerical work could worsen gender inequalities in the workforce.
Benefits of AI are not guaranteed ("no dividend" risk)
One of the main arguments employers make for introducing AI tools into the workplace is that it will increase productivity. However, the researchers argue that these gains may not translate into higher wages and better job quality.
Their finding is that without policy intervention, AI could increase inequality rather than shared prosperity, as a small elite group will benefit from the profit.
Lack of infrastructure limits AI gains in developing economies
The authors found that developing economies have poor access to digital infrastructure, skills, and connectivity. In many emerging economies, the cost to access the internet is prohibitively high.
The result is that many countries cannot fully benefit from AI. Emerging economies will need to address their digital readiness if they wish to reduce the gap and benefit from AI. Otherwise, they risk being left behind and watching the digital divide expand even further.
The full report is available here on the ILO site.